RE: Thoughts on the Rutgers-Fresno game this weekend?
The first game of the football season is always so difficult to handicap in college football. There are several reasons for this. Some of the reasons outside commentators can have such difficulty predicting 1st game outcomes include:
1) Roster Turnover – College football teams graduate players (or have players transfer, etc.), or have injuries that cannot be replaced from the free agent pool. Additionally, a slightly different mix of players can make the team chemistry either much better or much worse – which can have a direct impact on off-season work-outs, drive and development.
2) Coaching Turnover – Even a small change on the staff can mean a different offensive or defensive philosophy, making the prior seasons’ tendencies completely useless for comparison.
3) Player Development – In addition to roster turnover, players start college so young that even a single season can make a huge difference in the performance of key players. In addition, a recovery from injury can make a big difference in the performance of certain players.
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Nonetheless, I will attempt to analyze some of the possibilities for the upcoming Rutgers-Fresno State game on 9/1/08. I will do this in a slightly different format than my usual in-season “Reasons RU Fans Should Hope or Worry” format. Instead, I will look at three areas:
1) Conventional wisdom vs. reality on why everyone is so high on Fresno
2) Keys to an RU victory based on LAST seasons’ tendencies; and
3) Key match-ups
Does Conventional Wisdom Match Reality: Why is Everyone So High on Fresno?
Conventional Wisdom #1: Fresno will be a top 25 team because they return 17 starters.
Reality: It is TRUE that Fresno returns 17 starters – or at least a LOT of starters. Even with a couple of potential starters leaving the program for non-football reasons, Fresno returns a lot of players who started at least some games in 2007, and even in 2006. Truthfully, I cannot figure out whether it is 15, 17 or even 20 because so many players were hurt in 2006 and 2007 and, therefore, there are many players who could be said to be starters. On the OL, it looks like there might be more than 5 returning players who started at least part-time in 2007, for example. But they return a good number of starters, especially on offense (by most counts 10 starters on offense). It is also true that Fresno had a solid 9-4 record last season, despite suffering a ton of injuries.
Conventional Wisdom #2: Fresno should have a great and balanced offense.
Reality: TRUE. Fresno, by all measures, returns 10 starters on offense. It returns a 5th year senior QB who has started all the games in the last 2 seasons. The Bulldogs return their top 4 running backs (none stars, but all effective). Fresno returns the same offensive philosophy, but with greater experience. The offense should be very good, though I do not think it will be explosive, and it is heavily focused on moving the ball on the ground.
Conventional Wisdom #3: Fresno’s defense will be improved due to its returning players. Reality: FALSE. Just my opinion, of course. Fresno St does return 7 players who started at least some games over the last 2 years. And it does return 3 starters in the defensive backfield. But Fresno’s defense in 2007 was below average, and its pass defense was very mediocre, while its rushing defense was even worse. Fresno looks like they have to replace 2 LB’sand 2 DL, making their front 7 a real question mark. Maybe in the offense happy WAC Fresno can try to outscore its opponents, but nationally that usually does not work consistently. In Phil Steele’s pre-season magazine, despite all those players returning, none of Fresno’s DB’s are even ranked in his top 4 pre-season All WAC teams. In fact, he does not rate any of Fresno’s returning DB’s even in the top 16 amongst WAC DB’s. Fresno does have a very good DT, though (Monga).
Conventional Wisdom #4: Fresno is a giant killer out of conference.
Reality: FALSE. Fresno may scare BCS teams, but the last “giant” it killed was … in 2004, beating Washington and a top 25 Kansas State. In 2001, Fresno beat 3 BCS OOC teams (Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin). Last season, Fresno did beat Georgia Tech and Kansas State, but Kansas State had a losing record last year and GT was 7-6, hardly “giants.” In other words, Fresno has not beaten a “giant” since 2004.
Conventional Wisdom #5: Fresno will play anyone, anywhere – and will scare the heck out of BCS teams.
Reality: TRUE. Fresno will play anyone, anywhere. And Fresno WILL scare the heck out of teams supposedly better than they are – and has done that every year for years. In 2005, Fresno almost beat Oregon (losing by 3 after leading much of the game), and they almost beat then #1 USC (with a host of turnovers at or near the goal line, costing them many points). And after a very tough 2006, Fresno scared a bunch of teams in 2007, again: Though they got obliterated by Oregon State, they lost to Boise State. by just 7 and took Texas A&M into OT before losing.
What is not talked about was Fresno’s struggles to barely beat really bad teams. They won the following games by less than 14 points in 2007: Idaho (1-11), Utah State (2-10), New Mexico State (4-9), La. Tech (5-7) and Nevada (6-7). And Fresno got a lot of credit for beating a very mediocre Kansas State team last year (5-7 record) and a zero offense Georgia Tech team that not only was just 7-6 but also facing its coaching staff bolting en mass after the game.
Keys to a Rutgers Victory over Fresno State:
Because of the opening comments, anyone trying pr project the potential outcome of the Rutgers-Fresno State game on 9/1/08, the 1st game of the season for both teams, is really flying blind. But since when has that stopped anyone, me included, from commenting? I am going to highlight four keys to victory that I have identified, based primarily on offensive and defensive tendencies from last season. For clarity, I have presumed that Fresno’s offense will be slightly improved, despite some questions about the health of their OL, and that their defense remains about the same in quality. I presume RU’s running game will decline a little with the loss of Ray Rice, but that RU’s passing game will be opened up more (not more explosive, but more varied), due to Teel’s healthy thumb and the quality returning receivers – and that though RU’s OL may take a small step back, it will still be above average. I also assume that RU’s defense will be improved, despite the loss of Foster, including improved DB’s (much more experience and depth) and improved LB’s (more experience and more athleticism). I will also assume that the DL will be no worse off, and maybe even better, despite no Foster (because the DE’s and Tverdov will all be more experienced and improved).
Here are the 4 keys to an RU victory:
Key #1: RU keeping Fresno under 200 yards rushing - under 150 yards rushing would be even better. In 2007, Fresno was 8-0 when they rushed for more than 200 yards in a game, while just 1-4 when rushing for less than 200 yards. Their passing game does not seem to be designed to win games for them. Meanwhile, in 2007, RU was 6-0 when allowing less than 150 yards in rushing. RU’s offense ought to be good enough to outscore any opponents who cannot run the ball.
Key #2: RU keeping Fresno under 400 yards in total offense – under 370 yards would be even better. In 2007, Fresno was 6-0 when they were able to tally 400 yards or more of offense and just 3-4 when held to under 400 yards. In 2007, RU was 7-0 when allowing fewer than 370 yards in total offense and 1-5 when giving up more than 370 yards in total offense.
Key #3: RU scoring more than 30 points. Oddly enough, despite a supposedly strong offense, Fresno was not able to outscore almost anybody. They was 8-0 when they allowed FEWER than 30 points in a game in 2007 and just 1-4 when they allowed 30 or more points in a game. Conversely, when RU scored 30 or more points in 2007, they were 6-1, while only going 2-4 when scoring fewer than 30 points.
Key #4: RU rushing for more than 170 yards. Last season, when RU rushed for at least 170 yards in a game, they were 7-1. RU might definitely have a different offensive look, and therefore a different offensive tendency, in 2008. But still, Fresno’s rush defense might be so poor that RU might be able to do this. And anytime RU is able to rush for 150-200 yards in a game in 2008, that should make Teel and the receivers very, very dangerous.
Match-Ups To Watch:
1) RU’s OL vs. Fresno’s Front 7. Fresno could not stop the run last season at all. But RU has to replace 3 starting OL, and Ray Rice. If the RU OL can create enough room to give the RU running backs just a little ability to run - and protect Teel - then RU is going to score some points. This match-up is much more important than the RU WR versus the Fresno DB’s, which I will not even list as a key match-up. Why? Because if the RU OL gives Teel time, there is no way the Fresno DB’s can shut down the RU receivers. No way, no how.
2) Fresno’s RB’s and TE vs. RU’s LB’s. RU’s LB’s had trouble last season getting off of blocks, being in the right position to stop runners at the line of scrimmage in NON-SHORT YARDAGE situations, and covering RB’s and TE’s in pass coverage. I think this season RU’s LBs will be more experienced, stronger and more athletic. Fresno will be a good test of this.
3) RU’s Special Teams vs. Fresno’s Special Teams. RU loses its all time great FG kicker – and one of its worst punters (all in the same person). RU was also very mediocre in covering kick returns and punt returns. Fresno had a player who was one of the best kick-off returners in the country, and an almost as good a punt return game. But Fresno also lost their FG kicker, their punter and their holder from 2007.
4) Turnovers. Both teams were really bad last season at creating turnovers. Fresno did a slightly better job at protecting the ball when on offense. In an odd stat, RU did not fumble very often in 2007 but lost almost EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY FUMBLED. This is odd, but true. RU fumbled just 14 times in 2007, but lost 12 of those fumbles.
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Thoughts on the Rutgers-Fresno game this weekend?
